0.3 Probability, Uncertainty, and System Dynamics

3. Probability, Uncertainty, and System Dynamics

So far, we have been talking about how the system keeps reality coherent. But coherence does not mean that the future is fixed.

Question 1

What does it mean that the future is “open” in MBT?

A) That anything can happen without any constraints.

B) That future outcomes are probabilistic rather than fixed in advance.

C) That consciousness can freely choose any possible future.

D) That there is no single fixed future pre-stored as certainty; outcomes are resolved from probabilities as needed.

Question 2

And, what is uncertainty in this context?

A) A lack of certainty (for an observer) about which outcome will become actual.

B) A mistake in the system’s calculations.

C) A fundamental indeterminacy in how outcomes become actual.

D) A temporary gap in the system’s memory.

Question 3

But, what does “indeterminacy” mean in MBT?

A) That the system has no rules.

B) That outcomes are not certain; they are described by probabilities until resolved.

C) That consciousness creates outcomes by imagining them.

D) That outcomes are not fully determined until they are resolved.

Question 4

And, what does it mean that the future exists as a probability distribution?

A) That all possible futures are equally likely.

B) That the future is a set of possible outcomes with different likelihoods.

C) That the future already exists fully formed somewhere.

D) That probabilities are created by human belief.

Tracking what happened

Because each moment builds on the previous one, the system must keep track of what has already happened.

Question 5

What is the past database in MBT?

A) A physical archive storing all past events.

B) A memory structure that stores all resolved events as information.

C) A collection of human memories.

D) A place where old realities are stored.

Question 6

And, what is the future database in MBT?

A) A list of all events that will definitely happen.

B) A structure that stores all possible future outcomes with their probabilities.

C) A simulation of one predicted future.

D) A probabilistic representation of futures conditioned on the current state and on decisions not yet made.

Question 7

But, does the future database determine what will happen?

Yes

Question 8

And, how does the future become the past in MBT?

A) When the system copies all futures into the past database.

B) When consciousness chooses a future by intention alone.

C) Immediately after one possible outcome is realized as the present moment, it is stored as information in the past database.

D) When the system predicts the future accurately.

From dynamics to integration

We’ve described an open future, uncertainty, and how probabilities become actual outcomes.

Now let’s step back and ask what overall picture of reality these pieces add up to.

Question 9 (integration)

Which description best captures the overall picture of reality in MBT?

A) A mechanical universe that runs independently of observers.

B) A subjective illusion created entirely by the human mind.

C) An information-based system that generates experience for evolving consciousness.

D) A prewritten script where nothing really changes.

From system dynamics to consciousness evolution

We’ve described reality as a dynamic, probabilistic system that evolves over time through constraints, uncertainty, and resolution.

But this still leaves the most important question open: why does the system evolve at all — and what is actually evolving?

To answer that, we now have to shift focus from the system’s mechanics to the system’s purpose: consciousness, entropy, and the quality of information.